A corollary to this theory is that voters react more to the government than to the opposition because performance is evaluated and a certain state of the economy, for example, can be attributed to the performance of a government. The idea is that it is in circles of interpersonal relations even if more modern theories of opinion leaders look at actors outside the personal circle. Print. Distance is understood in the sense of the proximity model for whom voter preference and party position is also important. The basic idea is the representation of a point that is an ideal point for each voter in a hypothetical space. The idea was that there were two possible responses that are put in place by members of that organization: one of "exit", to withdraw, to go to another organization. The premise of prospective voting is too demanding for most voters. This ensures congruence and proximity between the party and the electorate. Beginning in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there has been a strong development of directional models. The further a party moves in the other direction, the less likely the voter will choose it because the utility function gradually decreases. Others have criticized this analogy between the economic market and the political market as being a bit simplistic, saying that, basically, the consequences of buying a consumer product have a certain number of consequences, but they are much more limited compared to what buying a vote can have in terms of choosing a party. The psychological and socio-economic model are strongly opposed, offering two explanations that are difficult to reconcile, even though there have been efforts to try to combine them. There have been attempts to address this anomaly. McClung Lee, A. The degree of political sophistication, political knowledge, interest in politics varies from voter to voter. We project voters' preferences and political positions, that is, the positions that parties have on certain issues and for the preferences that voters have on certain issues. In other words, if we know the partisan identification of voters, we can make a prediction about what the normal vote will be, which is a vote that is not or should not be influenced by other situational factors in a given electorate. In this perspective, voting is essentially a question of attachment, identity and loyalty to a party, whereas in the rationalist approach it is mainly a question of interest, cognition and rational reading of one's own needs and the adequacy of different political offers to one's needs. Finally, some studies show that high levels of education lead to weaker attachments to parties. Some people talk about membership voting for the first two theories and cognitive voting for the economic model of voting. The external factors would be the factors that, in the basic theory of the psycho-sociological approach, it would seem that this is what can do but if we have a certain partisan attachment to vote for another party because we are influenced by one or other of these factors but, basically, we keep our partisan attachment and the next time when these factors change, we return to the normal vote corresponding to the partisan attachment. The idea of intensity can also be seen as the idea that there are certain issues, that there are certain political positions that put forward symbols and some of these symbols evoke making these two issues more visible to voters but in the sense of making voters say that this particular party is going in that direction and with a high intensity. The influence of friends refers to opinion leaders and circles of friends. The political consciousness of individuals is based on social experiences and has little weight outside these experiences. There may be one that is at the centre, but there are also others that are discussed. New York: Columbia University Press, 1948. The Michigan model was based on the idea of socialization and partisan identification as a long-term attachment to a party that is the result of primary socialization in particular, and therefore as insertion into a given social context. Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller. Since the idea is to calculate the costs and benefits of voting for one party rather than the other, therefore, each party brings us some utility income. The importance of symbolic politics is especially capitalized on by the intensity directional models. This diagram shows the process of misalignment with changes in the generational structure and changes in the social structure that create political misalignment. Suicide is a global public health problem. On the other hand, preferences for candidates in power are best explained by the proximity model and the simple directional model. This theory is not about the formation of political preferences, they start from the idea that there are voters with certain political preferences and then these voters will look at what the offer is and will choose according to that offer. endstream endobj 44 0 obj <> endobj 45 0 obj <> endobj 46 0 obj <>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>> endobj 47 0 obj <> endobj 48 0 obj <> endobj 49 0 obj <> endobj 50 0 obj <> endobj 51 0 obj <>stream This is the idea that gave rise to the development of directional models, which is that, according to Downs and those who have followed him, because there is transparency of information, voters can very well see what the political platforms of the parties or candidates are. Ideology is a means of predicting and inferring political positions during an election campaign. In other words, in this retrospective assessment, the economic situation of the country plays a crucial role. The first answer is that basically, they vote according to their position, according to their social characteristics or according to their socialization, which refers to the sociological model. This is an alternative way which is another answer to the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates. This approach has often been criticized as a static approach since socio-economic or even socio-demographic characteristics do not change in the short term and yet the vote increasingly changes in the short term, what is called in electoral volatility, i.e. By Web: Vote-By-Mail Web Request. As part of spatial theories of the vote, some theories consider the characteristics of candidates. changes in voting behaviour from one election to the next. The choice can be made according to different criteria, but they start from the assumption that there are these voters who arrive in an electoral process that refers to the idea of the hexogeneity of voters' preferences. Voters who vote against the party with which they identify keep their partisan identification. This paper examines two models used in survey research to explain voting behavior. What we see here in relation to the sociological model and that these variables highlighted by the sociological model such as socialization, inking or social position play a role but only indirectly. There is an opposite reasoning. The initial formation of this model was very deterministic in wanting to focus on the role of social inclusion while neglecting other aspects, even though today there is increasingly a kind of ecumenical attempt to have an explanation that takes into account different aspects. The voters have to make that assessment and then decide which one brings more income and which one we will vote for. It is also often referred to as a point of indifference because there are places where the voter cannot decide. 0000010337 00000 n Prospective voting says that voters will listen to what candidates and parties have to say. One must assess the value of one's own participation and also assess the number of other citizens who will vote. There is also the economic vote, which is the role of the economy. There is an idea of interdependence between political supply and demand, between parties and voters, which is completely removed from other types of explanations. The book's focus was sociological, mainly considering socio-demographic predictors, interpersonal influence, cross-pressures, and the effects of social groups, as well as analyzing voter activation, reinforcement, and conversion across the election year. In a phase of alignment, this would be the psycho-sociological model, i.e. These are possible answers more to justify and account for this anomaly. According to Fiorina, identification with a party is not necessarily the result of a long phase of socialization, but it is also the result of evaluations of a certain party, it is the fact of voting for that party that makes it possible to develop a partisan identification. The idea is that a party is ready to lose an election in order to give itself the means to win it later by giving itself time to form an electorate. There are two slightly different connotations. But more generally, when there is a campaign, the issues are discussed. In other words, a directional element is introduced into the proximity model. Even more plausibly, election campaigns are built around several issues. On the other hand, the intensity directional model better explains the electoral choices of candidates who are not currently in power. There are also external factors that also need to be considered, such as the actions of the government, for example, voters are influenced by what the government has done. What determines direction? The Lazarsfeld model would link membership and voting. There is a small bridge that is made between these two theories with Fiorina on the one hand and the Michigan model of another party that puts the concept of partisan identification at the centre and that conceives of this concept in a very different way, especially with regard to its origin. In the study of electoral behaviour, there is a simple distinction between what is called prospective voting and retrospective voting. These are voters who proceed by systematic voting. Property qualifications. Here we see the key factors, namely electoral choice and, at the centre, the identification variable for a party, which depends on two types of factors, namely primary socialization and group membership. Political Behaviour: Historical and methodological benchmarks, The structural foundations of political behaviour, The cultural basis of political behaviour, PEOPLE'S CHOICE: how the voter makes up his mind in a presidential campaign, https://doi.org/10.1177/000271624926100137, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414094027002001, https://baripedia.org/index.php?title=Theoretical_models_of_voting_behaviour&oldid=49464, Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0). it is easier to change parties from one election to the next; a phase of realignment (3), which consists of creating new partisan loyalties. Pp. The directional model also provides some answers to this criticism. There is a whole literature on opinion formation, quite consensually, that says that citizens have a limited capacity to process information. Value orientations refer to materialism as well as post-materialism, among other things, cleavages but no longer from a value perspective. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. It is in this sense that the party identification model provides an answer to this criticism that the sociological model does not highlight the mechanisms that make a certain social inking influence a certain electoral choice. Psychological theories are based on a type of explanation that does not focus on the issues discussed during a political campaign, for example. On the basis of this, we can know. What voters perceive are directional signals, that is, voters perceive that some parties are going in one direction and other parties are going in another direction on certain issues. The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. The psycho-sociological model also developed a measure called the partisan identification index, since this model wanted to be an empirical model with behaviourism and the idea of studying individual behaviours empirically with the development of national election studies and survey data to try to measure the partisan identification index. With regard to the question of how partisan identification develops, the psycho-sociological model emphasizes the role of the family and thus of primary socialization, but several critics have shown that secondary socialization also plays a role. those who inquire: they are willing to pay these costs. There is a whole branch of the electoral literature that emphasizes government action as an essential factor in explaining the vote, and there is a contrast between a prospective vote, which is voting according to what the parties say they will do during the election campaign, and a retrospective vote, which is voting in relation to what has been done, particularly by the government, which has attributed the successes or failures of a policy. Four landmark studies connected with the presidential elections of 1940, 1948, 1952, and 1956 mark the establishment of scholarly survey-based research on voting behavior (Rossi 1959). The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 261(1), 194194. The role of the centrality of partisan identification has been criticized, especially today, because partisan identification plays a role that is still important but much less important than it used to be and may be much less important than some researchers within this paradigm have postulated. This theory presupposed that the voter recognizes his or her own interest, assesses alternative candidates, and on the basis of this assessment, will choose for the candidate or party that will be most favourably assessed in the sense of best serving his or her own political interests and interests. A distinction is made between the sociological model of voting from the Columbia School, which refers to the university where this model was developed. All parties that are in the same direction of the voter maximize the individual utility of that voter. Symbolic politics says that what is important in politics are not necessarily the rationally perceived positions or the political positions of the parties but what the political symbols evoke in relation to certain issues. Moreover, retrospective voting can also be seen as a shortcut. Finally, there is an instrumental approach to information and voting. There has been the whole emergence of the rational actor, which is the vote in relation to issues, which is not something that comes simply from our affective identification with a party, but there is a whole reflection that the voter makes in terms of cost-benefit calculations. Fiorina proposed the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates: how can voters know what the position of different parties is during an election campaign? Then they evaluate their own position in relation to the issues and they do the same operation positioning themselves on this left-right axis. Finally, the results of this test are discussed and conclusions drawn. 0 A third criticism of the simple proximity model is the idea of the median voter, which is the idea that all voters group around the centre, so parties, based on this observation, will maximize their electoral support at the centre, and therefore if they are rational, parties will tend to be located more at the centre. There are several theories emphasizing different factors which may shape citizens' voting behavior. This is especially important when applying this type of reasoning empirically. is premised on the assumption that elections connect the will of the people to the actions of government. This is the proximity model. We have seen that at Downs, the role of ideology is fundamental and that ideology could function as a kind of shortcut. Four questions around partisan identification. Video transcript. From that point on, there has been the development of a whole body of literature on political psychology. There is no real electoral choice in this type of explanation, but it is based on our insertion in a social context. Certain developments in the theory of the psycho-sociological model have in fact provided answers to these criticisms. 0000003292 00000 n Finally, they can vote for the candidate who is most likely in the voters' perception to change things in a way or in a way that leaves them the most satisfied. One can draw a kind of parallel with a loss of importance of the strength of partisan identification and also of the explanatory power of partisan identification. Of course, there have been attempts to assess the explanatory power of directional models, but according to these researchers, these spatial models were designed to be purely theoretical in order to highlight on a purely theoretical level what motivations voters may have for their electoral choice. We have to be careful, because when we talk about political psychology, we include that, but we also include the role of cognitions and rationality. This is the idea of collective action, since our own contribution to an election or vote changes with the number of other citizens who vote. What we are interested in is on the demand side, how can we explain voters' electoral choice. Cambridge New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999. [1] The psycho-sociological model has its roots in Campell's work entitled The American Voter publi en 1960. From the point of view of parties and candidates, the economic model and in particular the model that was proposed by Downs in 1957 and which predicts a convergence of a party position towards the centre. That is why there are many empirical analyses that are based on this model. The idea is that the extremist attitudes of those former voters who become party activists push strategic positioning in a direction that takes them away from their constituents. The Logics of Electoral Politics. 65, no. For many, voting is a civic duty. Sometimes, indeed often, people combine the first two models incorporating the psycho-sociological model on the basis that the Michigan model is just an extension of the Columbia model that helps explain some things that the Columbia model cannot explain. "The answer is "yes", as postulated by spatial theories, or "no", as stated by Przeworski and Sprague, for example. This is called prospective voting because voters will listen to what the parties have to say and evaluate on the basis of that, that is, looking ahead. The initial formulation of the model is based on the Downs theory in An Economic Theory of Democracy publi en 1957. There was a whole series of critics who said that if it's something rational, there's a problem with the way democracy works. The goal of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the measurement of suicide severity based on the Columbia suicide severity rating scale. Rationalist theories and spatial models of the vote have had the very beneficial relationship of putting precisely the free choice of voters at the centre of analyses. There are two important issues in relation to the spatial theory of voting. $2.75. In other words, the homing tendency that is the explanation that the model postulates is much less true outside the United States. On this basis, four types of voters can be identified in a simplified manner: It is possible to start from the assumption that the characteristics of these different voters are very different. In other words, this identification is part of the self-image one can have of oneself. The first question is how to assess the position of the different parties and candidates, since we start from the idea of projecting voters' political preferences and party projections onto a map. This model emphasizes the role of integration into social groups. how does partisan identification develop? It is possible to determine direction based on the "neutral point" which is the point in the middle, or it is also possible to determine direction from the "status quo". IVERSEN, T. (1994). the maximum utility is reached at the line level. "i.e., if it is proximity, it is 'yes', otherwise it is 'no' and therefore directional; 'are the preferences of the actors exogenous? The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools: the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with the publication of the book The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) On the other hand, this is true for the directional model; they manage to perceive a policy direction. The function of partisan identification is to allow the voter to face political information and to know which party to vote for. The concept and measurement of partisan identification as conceived by these researchers as applying to the bipartite system and therefore needs to be adapted to fit the multiparty and European system. Also called the Columbia model (after the university from whence came the researchers), the sociological model of voting behavior was constructed with the intention of studying the effect of media on voting choice. Ecological regression represents one extreme: the presumption that voting behavior changes systematically across groups but only changes randomly, if at all, within groups. There are a whole bunch of individual characteristics related to the fact that one is more of a systematic voter of something else. The answer to this second question will allow us to differentiate between proximity models and directional models because these two subsets of the spatial theories of voting give diametrically opposite answers to this question. What interests us is that the idea of issue voting is fundamental to spatial theories of voting. The economic model makes predictions and tries to explain both the participation but also, and above all, the direction of the vote, which is the electoral choice. Inking and the role of socialization cause individuals to form a certain partisan identification that produces certain types of political attitudes. On the other hand, to explain the electoral choice, we must take into account factors that are very far from the vote theoretically, but we must also take into account the fact that there are factors that are no longer close to the electoral choice during a vote or an election. In the literature, spatial theories of voting are often seen as one of the main developments of the last thirty years which has been precisely the development of directional models since the proximity model dates back to the 1950s. Furthermore, "social characteristics determine political preferences". 0000007057 00000 n The political position of each candidate is represented in the same space, it is the interaction between supply and demand and the voter will choose the party or candidate that is closest to the voter. They are voters who make the effort to inform themselves, to look at the proposals of the different parties and try to evaluate the different political offers. A distinction is made between the sociological model of voting from the Columbia School, which refers to the university where this model was developed. Directional model with intensity: Rabinowitz, Four possible answers to the question of how voters decide to vote, Unified Voting Model: Merrill and Grofman, Responses to criticisms of the proximity model, Partisan Competition Theory: Przeworski and Sprague, Relationship between voting explanatory models and realignment cycle. For Fiorina, the retrospective vote is the fact that current policy is fundamental, whereas in the prospective vote it is less so. Moreover, there are analogies that are made even explicitly with the idea of the market. The organization is in crisis and no longer reflects our own needs. There are certain types of factors that influence other types of factors and that in turn influence other types of factors and that ultimately help explain the idea of the causal funnel of electoral choice. The theory of partisan competition was completely eliminated by the other types of explanations. That is what is called the proximity vote, that is, having a preference over a policy. Although the models rely on the same data they make radically different predictions about the political future. In Switzerland, the idea of an issue is particularly important because there is direct democracy, which is something that by definition is based on issues. to 1/n,and thus the expected utility of voting is proportional to N/n, which is approximately independent of the size of the electorate.3 In the basic rational-choice model of voting and political participation (see Blais 2000 for an overview and many references), the relative util-ity of voting, for a particular eligible voter, is: U = pB . This is a very common and shared notion. Three Models of Voting Behavior. The image that an individual has of himself in this perspective is also the result of this identification. Partisan identification becomes stronger over time. A lawmaker's (stochastic) voting behavior is characterized by the relationship between her position in this space and the bill's position [1 . Voters who want their ballot mailed to an address that is not their address on record will be required to submit their request in writing. The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools: the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with the publication of the book The Peoples Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) and There are different strategies that are put in place by voters in a conscious or unconscious way to reduce these information costs, which are all the costs associated with the fact that in order to be able to evaluate the utility income given by one party rather than another, one has to go and see, listen, hear and understand what these parties are saying. There have been several phases of misalignment. They may rely less on their partisan loyalties, so their vote may be explained less by their social base and more by their choice among an offer that is the economic model. The third criterion is rationality, which is that based on the theory of rational choice, voters mobilize the limited means at their disposal to achieve their goals, so they will choose the alternative among the political offer that costs them the least and brings them the greatest possible benefit. The limitations are the explanation of partisan identification, which is that the model has been criticized because it explains or does not explain too much about where partisan identification comes from except to say that it is the result of primary socialization. Other researchers have tried to propose combined models that combine different explanations. Four questions can be asked in relation to this measure: For the first question, there are several studies on the fact that partisan identification is multi-dimensional and not just one-dimensional. What is interesting is that they try to relate this to personality traits such as being open, conscientious, extroverted, pleasant and neurotic. At the basis of the reflection of directional models, and in particular of directional models with intensity, there is what is called symbolic politics. Voters try to maximize their individual utility. According to Downs, based on the prospective assessment that voters make of the position that voters have and their position on various issues, voters arrive at and operate this shortcut by situating and bringing parties back to an ideological dimension that may be a left-right dimension but may also be another one. This approach would be elitist, this assumption that voters have the ability to know what is going on which is the idea of information and this ability that voters have to look at that information and process it. We see the kinship of this model with the sociological model explaining that often they are put together. 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