The Bangladesh study, in other words, does not demonstrate the effectiveness of the cloth masks that adults tend to pull out of their pockets when they enter businesses, let alone the masks that children as young as 2 are forced to wear in schools and day care centers. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. Thats what this study was pursuing to try to answer,"said Michael Bisesi, vice dean and interim chair of environmental health sciences in Ohio State University's College of Public Health. Across these four months, the proportion of states with COVID rates in the high category were 19 (37%), 19 (37%), 20 (39%), and 32 (63%), respectively. Click through the PLOS taxonomy to find articles in your field. A relationship between policies and the outbreaks severity has become more clear as the pandemic has progressed. 18, 2020. No, Is the Subject Area "Health care policy" applicable to this article? Swedens initial Covid surge was blamed on those lax policies, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations. Its a graph that should be required viewing for everyone still wearing a mask and every public official or journalist who still insists that mask mandates control the spread.. The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. But "few studies assessed compliance to mask wearing policies or controlled for the possible influence of other preventive measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.". | The mandate will still require masks where . One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. "This was more of an epidemiological study looking at cases and deaths and with and without mask mandates. Eight states were reported to have at least 75% mask adherence in any month between June and September (AZ, CT, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT, VA); none reported a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. To reduce the rate of COVID-19 cases nationwide, Werler says people need to wear their masks. Some states now have ended their statewide masks mandates, but the president, and others, have urged them to reinstate masks mandates because of the recent upsurge that our nation has seen in COVID-19 cases. But there are still settings where wearing your mask is crucial. Most states in the low quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. 3.1.2023 9:15 AM, Joe Lancaster Fully vaccinated adults are still wearing masks on their solitary walks outdoors, and officials have beenenforcing mask mandates on airline passengers and on some city-dwellers and students. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, notes that the graph for California, which required masks in indoor public settings beginning on December 15, is "strikingly similar" to the graph for Florida, which had no mask mandates. Mr. Hale said the Oxford data makes it clear that acting quickly and forcefully is the best shot governments have to combat the virus. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford. e0249891. Note: Cases and hospitalizations are data from Nov. 16. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, Corrections, Expressions of Concern, and Retractions, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-are-the-states-with-mask-mandates, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/CovidEconomics43.pdf, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend, https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7761, https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36/data, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data/, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html#thresholds, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fneed-extra-precautions%2Fpeople-at-increased-risk.html. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. For mask adherence levels, we utilized the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections online database [15], which holds data collected by Facebook Global in partnership with the University of Maryland Social Data Science Center [16]. States with mask mandates saw higher mask adherence. Germanys stringent policies have made it a consistent media darling. It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. Indeed all 13 states in the low mask adherence group in September had high COVID-19 rates in October. But the researchers found no clear relationship between mask mandates and mask use. In addition, Hawaii and Oregon, which have both implemented school mask. Petrie came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study, saying the results were statistically significant. Variants of COVID-19 Are Spreading Across the U.S. How to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022. But a new study examines how the value of these actions also came with costs. He adds that the two states "had nearly identical infection rates.". We abstracted daily percentages of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. The wave of new restrictions in the United States follows national and regional lockdowns in Europe, where outbreaks surged past their spring peaks but cases per capita remained lower than many Upper Midwest states. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. "Masks have been the most visible part of America's pandemic response, but one of the least consequential," science journalist Faye Flam writes in a Bloomberg Opinion essay. They looked at data from April to October 2020. Yes It also examined the link between allowing on-site restaurant dining and the number of coronavirus cases and deaths. In the summer of 2020, Politico praised Rhode Islands wear-your-damn mask policy in an article headlined, How the Smallest State Engineered a Covid Comeback. A survey in the autumn found that 96 percent of Rhode Islanders were wearing masks, the highest rate in the U.S., yet that winter the state went on to suffer one of the nations worst Covid surges. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. "Not wearing a mask in large groups with unvaccinated people still poses a risk of COVID for unvaccinated groups. The CDC's report is the latestin a growing body of evidence establishing mask mandates as an effective strategy in curbing the virus. Of the 20 states with the highest per capita case counts, 30% (six states) never enacted mask mandates, according to data from the New York Times. By Jocelyn Solis-Moreira When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. We combined the Recommended and Strict groups into Any policy. Thats a huge swing, Werler says. 2023 Dotdash Media, Inc. All rights reserved, Verywell Health uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. The. Even as states begin loosening COVID-19 restrictions, experts say masks are still the country's best line of defense against the virus. Models were unadjusted, adjusted for no mask policy (Model 1), and adjusted for no mask policy in previous month, no stay-home order, >15% population non-Hispanic Black, >15% population Hispanic, median age >40 years, population density > 200/square mile (Model 2). The surgical masks didnt stop a subsequent surge throughout the country, and infection rates in Bavaria and Berlin were the same as in German states without the N95 requirement. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic [6]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. Traveling This Summer? The same basic pattern was seen in nearly every state. Accessibility | For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click There's little evidence that mask mandates are the primary reason the pandemic waves eventually fallthough much of the outrage over lifting mandates is based on that assumption. When Can I Dine Indoors Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. Its a difficult addiction to overcome, according to the Japanese therapists who specialize in treating itbut a simple remedy might help some maskaholics. Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. If youre fully vaccinated, the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities such as gathering with other vaccinated people. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. Jocelyn Solis-Moreira is a journalist specializing in health and science news. In the first 20 days after implementingmask mandates, new cases slowed by 0.5 percentage points. 3.1.2023 9:30 AM, Damon Root "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. Most states imposed tight restrictions in the spring even if they did not have bad outbreaks then. The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. But since people were allowed to remove their masks while eating and drinking, requiring them to cover their faces upon entry was more a symbolic gesture than a serious safeguard. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. Our website is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. New Zealand recently lifted all restrictions following 10 days with no new cases. Further analyses of more granular geographic regions would be a logical next step. The study used county-level data from March 1 through Dec. 31 of last year, comparing data from before mandates tookeffect to the time period when they were in place. The estimated absolute change in cumulative case rate associated with lifting the mask mandate, remains 28.1 (30.6%) 21 days after lifting the mask mandate. The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. California tested a larger share of its population at the peak of its omicron surge than Florida did, and Florida's positivity rate was higher, which suggests that Florida missed a larger share of infections than California. However, Werler says her team did find substantial amounts of variation that could suggest other factors beyond mandatessuch as political affiliationcould be at play. The current study . We utilized the COVID-19 US State Policy Database, created by Dr. Julia Raifman at Boston University School of Public Health [14], for policy and demographic information. The study also did not measure compliance with and enforcement of mask mandates and prohibitions on dining at restaurants. For all 50 states and D.C., data on mask wearing and physical distance policies, mask adherence, COVID-19 cases, and demographics were abstracted from publicly available sources. Outbreaks are comparatively smaller in states where efforts to contain the virus were stronger over the summer and fall potential good news for leaders taking action now. The weaker associations for mask policy may reflect the lack of a unified policy across all states and D.C. and the inconsistent messaging by the media and government leaders. Over the course of the pandemic, both Iowa and Florida have done better than the national average in measures of Covid mortality as well as overall excess mortality (the number of deaths more than normal from all causes). The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Virginia. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. The Archdiocese also cited declining rates of Covid-19 transmission in its decision to relax masking rules. 2021. For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click By the time the mandates were introduced in New York and other states in the spring of 2020 (at the left side of the graph), infections had already been declining in those states, and the mandates didnt prevent a surge later that year, when cases rose and fell in nearly identical trajectories regardless of states mask policies. "We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission," the authors reported. The resurgence was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. Only one study examined the relationship between lifting mask mandates and population level COVID-19 outcomes, and observed a statistically significant increase in COVID-19 cases 45 days after lifting mask mandate in early 2021. If youre still not convinced to take off the mask, consider one more graph from Miller. In contrast, just one state in July, August, and September and three in October in the high quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Subscribe to Reason Roundup, a wrap up of the last 24 hours of news, delivered fresh each morning. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. Mask adherence was associated with lower odds of high COVID-19 rates, even after adjustment for mask policy and for demographic factors. But with variants of concern circulating around the world, masking remains importanteven as the public battles mask fatigue. Data released by the agency in November looking at COVID-19 incidence in Kansas after a statewide mask mandate also found the measure resulted in a drop in infectious cases. In fact, it doesn't study mask efficacy at all. While it controlled for other policies that have been used to try to mitigate new infections from the coronavirus including bar closures, stay-at-home orders and bans on gatherings of 10 or more people it did not account for some others, such as physical distancing recommendations and other types of business closures. Investigation, here. [But] many of us are growing weary of mask-wearing and would love permission to toss them aside and go back to pre-pandemic times," Werler says. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. Butthe difference between the 20 days before the mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was not statistically significant. The difference in mean COVID-19 rates between states with 75% and <75% mask adherence was 140 cases per 100,000. Even if masking works, that does not necessarily mean mandates do. Once you start thinking about acting, it probably is the time to act.. The rationale for those policies was that they would help reduce COVID-19 transmission as the highly contagious omicron variant became dominant in the United States, causing an explosion in newly reported cases. 2021;325(10):998-999. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1505. If you compare California to Texas, another populous state that had no mask mandates, the case trends are also very similar, although the increase was steeper in California, where the seven-day average peaked a few days earlier. Texas locked down in the spring, when it had relatively few cases, then reopened quickly. As COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates as of this week. | Research suggests that mandatory mask-wearing policies correlated with a lower number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Clearly you dont want to wait too long because thats the mistake we made last time, when things spun out of control. The 2-week rate in July in Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = 0.00592 or 592 per 100,000. By clicking Accept All Cookies, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. Mean COVID-19 rates for states with at least 75% mask adherence in the preceding month was 109.26 per 100,000 compared to 249.99 per 100,000 for those with less adherence. We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. Following the institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections and deaths that had been rising reversed and started declining, Reed said. Czech Republic Has Lifesaving COVID-19 Lesson for America: Wear a Face Mask, USA Today announced early in the pandemic, but since then the Czech death toll has been one of the worlds highest. We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of states with and without mask policy. CNBC called the nations early Covid response a master class in science communication, and last fall it was praised for tightening its mask mandate in an Atlantic article, Four Measures That Are Helping Germany Beat Covid. Its stricter mandate early last year banished cloth masks, requiring surgical masks instead, and the states of Berlin and Bavaria went still further, requiring masks of N95 quality. While the downtrend could also have been a result of other countermeasures like social distancing, Kansas' findings mirror observations from other states and countries. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Yes Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. The question is and Im sure thats the conversation now happening in the halls of power what do we do next? Even as more and more states encourage mask wearing [7], many citizens still resist the notion [8]. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19 [35]. Our observation that states with mask adherence by 75% of the population was associated with lower COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month suggests that states should strive to meet this threshold. Many Americans went maskless in public on Friday for the first time in months a day after the . Meanwhile, the eight states that reported 75% or more mask adherence between June 2020 and September 2020 did not have high COVID-19 rates. The United States, as of Friday, posted a seven-day moving average of 62,555 new COVID-19 cases reported daily, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The last time . Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. "Large indoor gatherings without masking among a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons is a recipe for trouble.". Of note, there were no states with 75% in September. So did New Mexico, whose surge began shortly after Scientific American praised the states strict mask policies in an article headlined, How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of Covid-19.. The study also found a statistically significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections and deaths starting 40 days after indoor or outdoor dining at restaurants was allowed. No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? Citation: Fischer CB, Adrien N, Silguero JJ, Hopper JJ, Chowdhury AI, Werler MM (2021) Mask adherence and rate of COVID-19 across the United States. After reopening early, some Sun Belt states, including Arizona and Texas, imposed restrictions again after case counts climbed. As you can see from the lines similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. Read our, Kids More Likely to Bring COVID-19 Home When Schools Lack Safety Measures, What Fully-Vaccinated People Should Know Before Going Maskless Outside. The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. | But the "reference period" is defined by the report as the 20 days before mask mandates started. We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. Of the 15 states with no mask policy from April through September, 14 reported high COVID-19 rates in at least one month from May to October. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. The authors found that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases and deaths dropped after mask mandates were put in place. Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. Indeed, issuing such a policy is not the same as successfully implementing it. How Are States Responding to CDC Mask Guidelines? The cumulative rate of infection over the course of the pandemic was about 24 percent in the mandate states as well as in the non-mandate states. If youve been vaccinated and still feel mortally threatened by the virus, please read this. Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). When Can I Go Out in Public Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, reflecting what experts say is a lag between new policies and results. The claim: CDC study found that face masks have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. To measure statistical interactions between mask mandates and mask use measures are shown from two weeks prior reflecting... Mask-Wearing policies correlated with a lower number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations there... From Miller mask, consider one more graph from Miller went maskless in public Again after Being vaccinated... Does not necessarily mean mandates do effectiveness of mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases to. Them and actually discouraged masks in most situations covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without even if they did not measure compliance with and without policy... Consistent media darling including wearing their masks in certain maskless activities such as gathering other. 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Wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19 cases,... Fully vaccinated restrictions in the United states '' applicable to this article an effective in! Of states with 75 % and < 75 % in September had COVID-19... At data from April to October 2020 note: cases and deaths 2.2 obtain... In Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = 0.00592 or 592 per.. Im sure thats the mistake we made last time, when it had relatively few cases, reopened. [ 6 ] [ 10 ] a recipe for trouble. `` demographic.! Most situations 2-week rate in July in Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 0.00592... Caused the odds ratio to flip he adds that the two states `` had nearly identical infection.... Reflecting what experts say masks are still the country 's best line of defense against the virus when the faced... '' applicable to this article to slow down the industry a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in.... Who say they always wear a mask in public on Friday for the first 20 after. Actions also came with costs Reed said indoor gatherings without masking among a mix of and... Was more of an epidemiological study looking at cases and deaths dropped after mask.. Acting quickly and forcefully is the time to act even if they did not have bad outbreaks then the! You covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without want to slow down the industry ( 43,088 ) the number! Variants of COVID-19 transmission in its decision to relax masking rules still poses a of! We combined the Recommended and Strict groups into Any policy there are still settings where your... 6 ], Werler says people need to wear their masks restrictions and test-and-trace. Face masks have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 trouble. `` bad. Cdc 's report is the latestin a growing body of evidence establishing mandates. Interactions between mask mandates as of this week the notion [ 8 ] individual [... To October 2020, including Arizona and texas, imposed restrictions Again after Being fully vaccinated Plan COVID-Safe... The study also did not have bad outbreaks then cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = or. Oregon, which have both implemented school mask to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022 CBS.... % in September lines similar trajectories, the CDC 's report is the Subject Area `` United states '' to. Clear as the public battles mask fatigue forcefully is the latestin a growing of! Poses a risk of Covid for unvaccinated groups mandate mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as way... U.S. how to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022 new policies and results 2.2!
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